After four years of elevating borrowing costs, interest rates finally dropped in June, leading to buyer optimism. However, as the June data indicates, this has not yet translated into increased sales. Sales fell to 6,213, marking a 16 per cent decline compared to the same period last year. Despite this, there are reasons for optimism for both buyers and homeowners.

For buyers, the good news is that not only have interest rates begun their descent, inventory has increased and prices remain stable. The average home in the GTA now sells for $1,162,167, essentially unchanged compared to last month and 1.69 per cent below last June.

For homeowners, despite a yearly increase of 67 per cent in active listings, a prolonged period of high interest rates, and recent changes to Canada’s capital gains tax, home prices have proven resilient. As buyers regain market confidence and monetary policy continues to ease, home prices are expected to climb once more.

Royal LePage President Phil Soper is forecasting an increase in home sales and prices after the Bank of Canada made its first interest-rate cut in four years. “It’s been four long years since Canadians have experienced a policy-driven drop in the cost of borrowing,” Mr. Soper said to The Globe and Mail. He said the small rate cut and stronger consumer confidence will generate a “material lift” in sales and “accelerated home price appreciation.”

Inventory across all asset classes increased over the past month, likely contributing to the slower-than-typical seasonal buying activity, however, the desire to own a home remains strong. A recent report by Royal LePage indicates that more than a quarter of renters in Canada plan to purchase a home within the next two years. Unsurprisingly, affordability of homes was the main consideration for renters deciding whether to make the leap to home ownership 

Examining individual asset classes across the GTA, the condo sector had the highest number of active listings at 8,806. Even with an 83 per cent yearly inventory increase, the average condo price decreased by only 1.5 per cent to $727,861. However, sales totaled 1,520, marking a 28 per cent decline and the fourth consecutive month of decreasing sales totals.

The detached market totaled 2,988 sales during the month, marking an 11.5 per cent yearly decline. Inventory swelled to 10,130, the highest total since September 2019. Detached properties throughout the month sold for an average of $1,480,399, a 3 per cent yearly decline.

The townhouse and semi-detached sectors indicated steeper yearly declines. The average sale price for a semi-detached home in the GTA is now $1,102,904, reflecting a 9.2 per cent yearly decline. The average townhouse sold for $1,021,866, marking a 6 per cent yearly decline. Both asset classes saw yearly increases in inventory with diminishing sales totals. The semi-detached inventory finished the month at 1,118, a 45.7 per cent yearly increase, with sales of 599, an 11.6 per cent decline. Townhome listings totaled 1,760, an 81.8 per cent yearly increase, with sales of 567, a 14.6 per cent decline.

“The GTA housing market is currently well-supplied. Recent home buyers have benefitted from substantial choice and therefore negotiating power on price. Moving forward, as sales pick up alongside lower borrowing costs, elevated inventory levels will help mitigate against a quick run-up in selling prices,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer. 

Overall, while sales have yet to pick up as expected, the market shows signs of resilience with increased inventory and stable home prices. Buyers and sellers alike should remain optimistic as the market continues to adjust to the new interest rate environment.

INSIGHTS