The latest Toronto Regional Real Estate Board’s Market Outlook and Year in Review report indicates that a strong housing supply is expected to keep home price growth in line with inflation. As a result, home prices in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) are projected to see moderate increases over the year.

The average home price is currently $1,040,994, reflecting a 2.4% decrease from December. This price is now approximately $5,000 below its February 2021 level, a time when values were still rising toward the market peak of $1,334,544 in February 2022.

Interestingly, this price point has been seen twice before in recent years, both times in January 2023 and January 2024. On each previous occasion, values rebounded in the following months, suggesting this level could act as a potential floor for the market. However, if this support line fails to hold, price volatility is likely to follow.

While home values remain near multi-year lows, sellers have not been deterred. Newly active listings reached 12,392, bringing the total active inventory to 17,157 by the end of the month. This represents a 92 per cent increase compared to the 10-year historical monthly average of 8,916.

On a positive note, home sales rose 14.5 per cent month-over-month to 3,847 transactions. However, on a yearly basis, sales remain 8 per cent lower and are down over 17 per cent compared to the 10-year monthly average.

As the market adjusts, various home segments continue to show different trends. The detached home segment across the GTA recorded a 1.5 per cent monthly decline, bringing the average sale price to $1,377,430. The month saw 5,000 newly active listings, the highest January total since 2013. By the end of the month, active listings reached 6,832, reflecting a 12 per cent monthly increase and a 90 per cent surge from January 2024. Detached home sales totalled 1,580, an 11 per cent increase from December.

The condominium segment continued its downward trend, marking its ninth consecutive month of price declines. The average condo sale price fell to $670,675, representing a 1.6 per cent decline on both a monthly and yearly basis. Newly active condo listings surged to 4,589, setting a new monthly record. Total condo inventory reached 6,913, marking a 47 per cent yearly increase and a 134 per cent surge from the 10-year monthly average. Sales, however, showed some strength, rising 21 per cent month-over-month, with 1,161 properties put under contract. Townhomes were one of the few asset classes to record an annual price increase. The average sale price of $983,856 represents a 2 per cent gain year-over-year. Active inventory reached 1,180, a staggering 137 per cent increase compared to the 10-year monthly average. Townhome sales totalled 409, up 8 per cent from December.

The semi-detached segment remained essentially flat year-over-year, with the average sale price at $1,047,728. Active listings finished the month at 798, reflecting a 143 per cent year-over-year increase and a 98.5 per cent jump from the 10-year monthly average. Semi-detached sales rose 20 per cent from December, totalling 349 transactions.

As January closes, the GTA real estate market remains in transition. While prices have softened, inventory levels are at historic highs, and buyer activity is showing some resilience. The coming months will be pivotal in determining whether this is a temporary reset or the beginning of a more prolonged adjustment.

At Royal LePage®, our 110-year legacy of serving Canadians ensures that buyers and sellers receive expert guidance through every market cycle. As a proudly Canadian company, we remain committed to helping our clients navigate the evolving real estate landscape with confidence and clarity.

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