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Archive for the ‘Statistics’ Category

A silver lining during the holiday season

Wednesday, December 22nd, 2010 by Dan Cooper

Talk about lousy timing for depressing news. Just as consumers are flocking to the stores to do their Christmas shopping, Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney came out with a stern warning that Canadians are too far in debt. He says that household debt is so high that if there was an interest rate hike, consumers would buckle under the load.
Personally, I don’t see any reason to be an alarmist. Yes, people have been spending, but they have also been saving over the past two years. The economic meltdown in the U.S. gave us all a scare and practically halted our own economy to a standstill.

It was refreshing, therefore, to see the recent remarks by Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist with BMO Capital Markets, who said that while household debt has been “rising relentlessly,” so too have household assets. Porter calls for calm. “This singular focus on the debt side of the balance sheet really overlooks the very clear improvement under way that we’ve seen on the asset side of the ledger for the past year or so. When you take this into account, Canadian household finances are not nearly as stretched as commonly perceived.”

He said Canadians have invested rather than just spend, and most of that investment has been in real estate, thereby increasing assets. In fact, Canadians are worth more than they used to be, he says. He rightly cautions that to scare consumers into closing their wallets would be dangerous. Such action would put a serious drag on our fragile economy, which is gradually improving.

Of course, Ontarians were hit with a double whammy this year. In addition to the recession and a shrinking manufacturing base, we also had to contend with the Harmonized Sales Tax (HST), which was introduced in July. Here in Oakville, the impact on our property values were further exacerbated by the controversial power plant proposal which scared off potential buyers.

But we are recovering. Consumers are getting used to the HST and the province wiped the power plant proposal off the drawing board. I’m confident that with all this turmoil behind us, the housing market in Oakville will be booming this coming spring.

It’s a good time to start looking at properties for your next move and remember to work with a broker who knows the community and has established successful selling strategies to ensure you sell your home for top dollar – fast. In the meantime, all of us on the Dan Cooper Team wish you a happy holiday and the very best for 2011.

Dan Cooper is an award winning Broker with Royal LePage Real Estate Services Ltd., Brokerage – the Number 1 Royal LePage Team for Canada in 2009. He can be reached at 905.338.3737, direct line at 905.849.3303 or through his innovative and interactive website at DanCooper.com. Be sure to catch the Dan Cooper Real Estate Series on DailyWebTV.com. For his free booklet How To Sell Your House For Top Dollar – Fast! or his Guide to Oakville Real Estate, please call the Dan Cooper Team.

The latest housing sales figures point to a stable market

Friday, December 10th, 2010 by Dan Cooper

Dan Cooper - Housing Cost

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) recently lowered its forecast for the volume of home sales, primarily because the third quarter of this year was weaker than expected. However, the association is saying that sales activity has gained traction and that the improving momentum suggests the resale housing market is stabilizing. It’s just not as strong as they thought it would be.

“Lackluster economic and job growth, muted consumer confidence and the resumption of interest rate increases are expected in 2011,” CREA states, adding that against this economic backdrop national home sales are forecast to be down by 9 percent. While the sales volume is expected to soften, average prices continue to rise.

We continue to see this in Oakville and Burlington. According to the latest figures from The Oakville, Milton and District Real Estate Board, the number of sales in Oakville last month was down slightly from November 2009, but the average house price was up by 1 percent. The average house price last year was $590,970 compared to $598,675 last month.

Prices for the year to date show a larger jump – 7 percent compared to the same 11-month period last year. The average selling price for the 11 months last year was $526,909 compared to $561,650 this year. In Burlington, the average price for homes sold last month was $388,088.

According to Gregory Klump, CREA’s chief economist, “Housing demand and supply is stabilizing. That’s good news for home buyers, who will feel less hurried to make an offer than they did when transitory factors ignited housing demand in early 2010. It’s also good news for home sellers, who will feel more confident about price stability now that the housing market has become balanced.”

Klump goes on to say that interest rates are widely expected to remain low for some time due to recent downward revisions by the Bank of Canada to its outlook for economic growth and inflation. Consumer sentiment, he says, will likely remain under pressure until economic prospects improve meaningfully.

“In the meantime, many households will focus on paying down their debts before the Bank of Canada resumes hiking interest rates next year. Economic uncertainty is likely to keep potential home buyers in a cautious mood, so the continuation of low and stable interest rates is unlikely to cause housing demand or prices to swell,” Klump concludes.
While Klump speaks to a national picture, you must remember that Oakville tends to be in a bit of bubble that often bucks the national trend. As one of the most desirable communities in Canada in which to live, real estate appreciation tends to be stronger here than in many centres across Canada.

The key to selling your home is to choose an experienced realtor who will market your home effectively. Innovative advertising, knowledge about the marketplace, commitment and exemplary service differentiate the Dan Cooper Real Estate Team. The result is that we are achieving accomplishments that illustrate the Dan Cooper difference. We are the Number 1 Team in Canada for Royal LePage, which is a testament to our ability to sell homes fast in the Oakville and Burlington areas. In fact, we have been the Number 1 team for seven of the past 10 years.

Dan Cooper is an award winning Broker with Royal LePage Real Estate Services Ltd., Brokerage – the Number 1 Royal LePage Team for Canada in 2009. He can be reached at 905.338.3737, direct line at 905.849.3303 or through his innovative and interactive website at DanCooper.com. Be sure to catch the Dan Cooper Real Estate Series on DailyWebTV.com. For his free booklet How To Sell Your House For Top Dollar – Fast! or his Guide to Oakville Real Estate, please call the Dan Cooper Team.

Experts are predicting cautious optimism in our economy

Wednesday, December 8th, 2010 by Dan Cooper

The Ontario Home Builders’ Association held its annual Economic Forum in Toronto last week where a panel of economists and experts outlined their predictions for the housing and real estate industry in 2011.

The important message was that these economists held cautious optimism for the coming year and felt that interest rates will remain stable, which bodes well for anyone planning to buy their first home or perhaps moving up into something larger and having to carry a mortgage.

According to Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist for BMO Capital Markets, consumer confidence is good; that while household debt is still on the high side, net worth is still in a favourable position. While the manufacturing job market has weakened in Ontario, employment across Canada has improved. Consumer confidence and a good national employment picture mean interest rates should remain stable for the next 18 months, he predicts. We’ve seen a few Bank of Canada rate increases over the summer, but as long as the U.S. Federal Reserve holds steady, there will be no reason to increase rates here, he maintains.

Pascal Gauthier, senior economist with TD Bank Financial Group, has similar opinions explaining that the economic recovery has entered a second phase with much more subdued but more sustainable economic growth. The result is low inflation and low interest rates.

“We think the Canadian dollar can hold and even rise above parity against the US dollar over the next 12 to 24 months … We forecast the Bank of Canada’s will resume raising its overnight rate (currently at one percent) by mid-2011, to reach two percent by year-end 2011, which is still low (zero in real, inflation-adjusted, terms) and stimulative for the economy,” Gauthier says.

He goes on to explain that longer term Government of Canada bond yields (e.g. five-year) will also rise modestly, which bodes well for typical mortgage borrowing rates (e.g. posted fixed five-year) which are anchored to these rates. This will mean that affordability should remain good on a financing basis.

As we move into the holiday shopping period, CIBC World Markets has an interesting take on the consumer situation. In one of its latest reports, the bank states that in the latest quarter shoppers hit the stores, as reflected in a 3.5 percent uptick in consumption activity. The drop in the savings rate to 3.3 percent is still lower than what we are seeing in the U.S., which indicates that Canadians are feeling less guarded about the economic picture. Domestic consumption has been supported in recent months by rising wages and ongoing hiring.

So whether you are shopping for gifts or thinking of making that larger investment in the near future – buying a home – there appears to be borrowing stability in the near future. When it comes to making that major investment – real estate – the key to selling your home quickly and for top dollar is to deal with a broker who has a proven track record and is a consistent top performer.

Innovative marketing initiatives and investment, knowledge about the marketplace, commitment and exemplary service differentiate the Dan Cooper Team. The result is that we are achieving accomplishments that illustrate the Dan Cooper difference. We are the Number 1 team in Canada for Royal LePage, which is a testament to our ability to sell homes fast in the Oakville and Burlington areas. In fact, we have been the Number 1 team for seven of the past 10 years. This is an accomplishment that does not happen by accident, but rather by design. Our dedication and commitment to selling your home, along with superior marketing strategies, have time and time again helped our clients sell their homes quickly and for top dollar.

Dan Cooper is an award winning Broker with Royal LePage Real Estate Services Ltd., Brokerage – the Number 1 Royal LePage Team for Canada in 2009. He can be reached at 905.338.3737, direct line at 905.849.3303 or through his innovative and interactive website at DanCooper.com. Be sure to catch the Dan Cooper Real Estate Series on DailyWebTV.com. For his free booklet How To Sell Your House For Top Dollar – Fast! or his Guide to Oakville Real Estate, please call the Dan Cooper Team.

What the October real estate stats are telling us

Thursday, November 4th, 2010 by Dan Cooper

Dan Cooper - Housing Cost

The volume of house sales in the GTA was down last month compared to October 2009, but year to date we are still showing modest growth. In fact, the annual change in sales and average selling prices has been quite uniform across the GTA as the market has balanced out from record sales in the second half of 2009 and first few months of 2010.

Despite the slowdown in activity, average prices are still on the rise – up five percent last month compared to October 2009. “The average selling price in the GTA has continued to grow relative to 2009 because home ownership has remained affordable,” says Jason Mercer, the Toronto Real Estate Board’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis. “A household earning the average income in the GTA can comfortably afford the mortgage payments associated with the purchase of an average priced home.”

Oakville followed a similar track with sales volumes, dropping by 34 percent in October compared to the same month last year. But perhaps for the first time Oakville did not outpace the rest of the GTA, recording a dip in the average price by eight percent. Last month the average house price was $550,636 compared to $596,694 in October 2009.

This is a bit of an anomaly for Oakville, which up to now has seen average home prices continue to climb. I believe a significant factor that depressed real estate prices here was the power plant fight. The fact that homes in South-East Oakville were plastered with Fight the Power Plant signs undoubtedly scared away many buyers. I know for a fact that real estate in the South-East area virtually dried up during that campaign. Taking those homes out of the equation would certainly distort the October price figures.

Having won that fight and with the power plant off the table, I fully expect South-East Oakville will bounce back in the market and that we will see average home prices begin to recover quite rapidly. In fact, interested buyers who had been holding off their decisions to see what the outcome would be in that power plant battle will likely create something of a boom in the South-East section.

Year to date, Oakville had a respectable year with sales volume down only five percent and the average sale price up seven percent compared to the first 10 months of last year. In Milton, the first 10 months of the year saw volume down only four percent and the average sales price up by 13 per cent. Comparing October with the same month last year, the sales volume in Milton was down 28 percent but the average price was up seven percent – $379,843 compared to $356,030 last October. The Burlington average price was $389,003 for last month.

“The outlook for mortgage rates and income growth over the next year is favourable. The average home selling price could increase moderately next year and remain affordable for the average GTA household,” according to the Toronto Real Estate Board. I would have to add that with the power plant no longer an issue, we will see Oakville house prices rise quickly and outpace the rest of the GTA.

Choosing an experienced realtor who will market your home effectively is the key to selling your home quickly and for top dollar. The Dan Cooper Team has a proven track record through market knowledge, innovative marketing and superior client service. This is what has made us the Number 1 Team in Canada for Royal LePage for seven of the past 10 years.

Dan Cooper is an award winning Broker with Royal LePage Real Estate Services Ltd., Brokerage – the Number 1 Royal LePage Team for Canada in 2009. He can be reached at 905.338.3737, direct line at 905.849.3303 or through his innovative and interactive website at DanCooper.com. Be sure to catch the Dan Cooper Real Estate Series on DailyWebTV.com. For his free booklet How To Sell Your House For Top Dollar – Fast! or his Guide to Oakville Real Estate, please call the Dan Cooper Team.

Latest survey says Canadians can anticipate a steadier housing market

Tuesday, November 2nd, 2010 by Dan Cooper

Real Estate Market - Dan Cooper

Canada’s residential real estate market saw year-over-year growth in the third quarter as fears of a double dip recession or a housing bubble faded, according to the latest Royal LePage House Price Survey. House price appreciation slowed to a more modest five percent in the quarter, which is historically typical of balanced real estate markets. “Most Canadian housing markets cooled in the third quarter. In fact, the year is unfolding much as we predicted, with the unusually active first half of 2010 giving way to slower markets in the later part of the year,” says Phil Soper, President and Chief Executive, Royal LePage Real Estate Services Ltd., Brokerage.

He said that due to low mortgage rates and improved affordability in many regions, the third quarter was slightly stronger than anticipated. “Looking ahead, it is very unlikely that the period from now to year-end can keep pace with the activity levels posted in the overheated market of the final quarter of 2009.” In the third quarter, the average price of a detached bungalow in Canada was up 4.6 percent, compared to a year ago. Over the same period, standard two-storey homes rose 4.4 percent while standard condominiums rose 3.9 percent.

“House price growth now sits just below the long-term annual average of approximately five percent, but once this is adjusted for inflation, which is very low and expected to continue to be that way for some time, appreciation is right on track. Canadian homeowners will be pleased,” said Soper. He explained that from 2007 through early 2010, the Canadian housing market often saw wild swings in housing activity. “We believe much of that volatility has been worked out of the system and that gradual economic improvement, particularly with our employment picture, offset by the dampening effect of a gradual increase in mortgage costs, should bring a steadier housing industry through 2011.”

Here in Oakville and Burlington, although the quantity of home sales transactions fluctuated significantly period to period over the past two years, house prices saw much less change. The Oakville and Burlington areas have often bucked the national trend with house values continuing to appreciate, illustrating that real estate here is a wise investment. A few weeks ago I wrote about the latest statistics from The Oakville, Milton and District Real Estate Board which confirmed that average home prices in Oakville were eight percent higher last month than in September 2009. This just highlights that despite the sluggish sales activity, homes in Oakville are not only maintaining their value, but continue to appreciate even in a recession.

The key to selling your home is to choose an experienced realtor who will market your home effectively. The Dan Cooper Team has built a solid reputation for exemplary customer service, innovative advertising and intimate knowledge about the marketplace. Our dedication to serve our clients has made us the Number 1 Team in Canada for Royal LePage for seven of the past 10 years.

Dan Cooper is an award winning Broker with Royal LePage Real Estate Services Ltd., Brokerage – the Number 1 Royal LePage Team for Canada in 2009. He can be reached at 905.338.3737, direct line at 905.849.3303 or through his innovative and interactive website at DanCooper.com. Be sure to catch the Dan Cooper Real Estate Series on DailyWebTV.com. For his free booklet How To Sell Your House For Top Dollar – Fast! or his Guide to Oakville Real Estate, please call the Dan Cooper Team.