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Brighter forecast from Canada’s national housing agency

Friday, November 20th, 2009 by Dan Cooper

CMHC logo

In my column in the past few weeks I’ve highlighted a string of positive announcements in the real estate market. Locally we had the Realtors Association of Hamilton-Burlington followed by the Oakville, Milton and District Real Estate Board. Both associations revealed that house sales and prices are continuing to rise dramatically.

The latest positive news came from Statistics Canada, which reported last week that 8 of 10 economic components in its composite leading index increased, with housing continuing to be the fastest growing component. The housing index rose 4.2%, its sixth straight increase. And finally, the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation last week upgraded its forecast for the new housing market next year based on continued low mortgage rates, an improving economy in general and a spillover effect from the surging resale market. New home construction rose by a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 157,300 units in October, up from 149,300 in the previous month, according to CMHC.

Economists had expected housing starts to increase by between 155,000 and 158,800 units during the month. “The improvement in housing starts in October is attributable to improvement in the multiple starts segment,” Bob Dugan, CMHC’s chief economist, said last week. “Despite a small decline in single home starts in October, the level of single home starts remains at its second highest level since October 2008.” To put the new figures into perspective, Dugan pointed out how the annual rate of housing starts went as low as 118,500 in February and rose to about 150,000 in recent months. “That’s a pretty good improvement (but) not as good, though, as the improvement we’ve seen on the existing-home market,” Dugan was quoted in the Vancouver Sun recently. He said between January and September of this year, the rate of monthly existing home sales has increased about 63% on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Listed home resales are expected to reach 441,300 units this year and increase to 445,150 units in 2010, CMHC said in its report. Both figures are up from 2008’s result of 433,900. Ontario is among the provinces that are expected to post the sharpest year-to-year declines in housing starts this year, Dugan said, explaining that Ontario has a more volatile housing market, and its gains in recent years were more pronounced than elsewhere in the country.

These are definitely uncertain times, so whether you are selling your home or looking to buy a home, you want a knowledgeable Broker at your side – a Broker who knows the area and the market and who can eliminate a lot of guesswork for you. At The Dan Cooper Team, for example, we have a team of multi-disciplined professionals with more than 40 years of combined experience. When you work with the best you can be assured of getting a deal that is right for you.

Dan Cooper is an award winning Broker with Royal LePage Real Estate Services Ltd., Brokerage. He can be reached at 905.338.3737, direct line at 905.849.3303 or through his recently relaunched website DanCooper.com. Be sure to catch the Dan Cooper Real Estate Education Series on DailyWebTV.com. For a free copy of his Guide to Oakville Real Estate or his booklet How To Sell Your House For Top Dollar, please call The Dan Cooper Team.

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